Just like with any profession there are professionally instructed leaders of industry and amateurs. That is the same for Investing. But you should know that if you are not read up on the latest value investing procedures or if you haven’t formed your own personal checklist before investing in a Company or stock? You likely are make big mistakes along the way. But with today’s post on “How to Calculate a Stock or Company’s Intrinsic Value?” This will begin giving you a foundation or basic education to thrive and become successful in Investing.
I see so many people who do let emotions control their investing strategies and future. They are bound to lose almost everything. It’s just like If your a player in the Stock Market using only your gut and other people’s money? Your a borderline Criminal, Moron and most likely a gambling Day Trader at best. And should be taken behind the Building strung up by your ankles smothered with cheap grape jelly packets from the cafeteria and left for the Bears. These day’s Quants run the show. But there is good news! This post is for the bonafide new up and coming Investors wanting to reach that next elite level in Investing. If you have ever wondered where the like’s of Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, and other Value Investing Legends get there super secret knowledge from? This post is definitely going to provide you with a foundation of how to Calculate Intrinsic Value of a Stock or Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) of a Business.
So stay tuned…This is a post you do not want to miss. Even if it is Mathematics and heavy Calculations.
Hedge Fund Managers
If you plan on opening your own Hedge Fund Shop in the future or if your a Everyday Sophisticated Investor that plans on using Calculations and Mathematics instead of Gambling and Speculating? Your going to want to lay a foundation around Value Investing using Benjamin Graham’s teachings and procedures. So it’s absolutely vital you read Benjamin Grahams “Intelligent Investor” Book. Question. What makes a Hedge Fund unique to calculating a Stock or Companies Intrinsic value or Discounted Cash Flow? Well for starters Hedge Funds typically focus on trading on the stock market. But before I begin explaining Hedge Funds in depth like so many Financial personalities around me “I have extreme ADD sometimes.” LOL So maybe I should keep on track.
What is Intrinsic Value?
The intrinsic value of something is said to be the value that that thing has “in itself,” or “for its own sake,” or “as such,” or “in its own right.” Extrinsic value is value that is not intrinsic. Many philosophers take intrinsic value to be crucial to a variety of moral judgments. STANFORD BUSINESS ENCYCLOPEDIA
If your going to understand Intrinsic Value of a Business or Stock you need to understand that the Market is just voting for the day what they price is of a Stock. It doesn’t actually value the company. We use Intrinsic Value to evaluate and make a opinion to analyse if the Company or Stock we are looking at is undervalued and a bargain. If it is not a bargain and not undervalued? Then we keep looking. What is the formula to calculate Intrinsic Value? Before I answer this basic question you must know I highly recommend you read Benjamin Graham’s “Intelligent Investor” Book. It’s Warren Buffett’s bible of sorts. But first we need to lay out to terms.
Intrinsic Value Formula and Margin of Safety. These Topics are incredibly important for making a educated and professional judgement on a company’s future. And knowing if it is worth investing in.
By the way did you miss Berkshire Hathaway’s 2022 Annual Meeting? WATCH & READ HERE!
How to Calculate Intrinsic Value of a Business?
#1 – Intrinsic Value Formula of a Business
Mathematically, the intrinsic value formula of a business can be represented as,
- where FCFEi = Free cash flow to equity in the ith year
- FCFEi = Net income i + Depreciation & Amortisation i – Increase in Working Capital i – Increase in Capital Expenditure i – Debt Repayment on existing debt i + Fresh Debt raised i
- r = Discount rate
- n = Last projected year
Since this formula is mathematically difficult for ADD individuals like myself who struggle with on the page formulas. I would like to make this as easy as I am able for you. Here are a few videos that go in depth. Watch the Videos below to explain the calculation and models in action. This will begin giving you a foundation to grow.
BENJAMIN GRAHAM’S INTRINSIC VALUE CALCULATION MODEL EXPLAINED
Watch this Video below for a in depth explanation by this legendary Value Investor who is Charlie Mungers Bridge Playing Side Kick Mr. Mohnish Pabrai. Mr. Mohnish Pabrai is sincerely a fantastic guy. Mr. Pabrai has been very generous with the lessons and information he gives to up and coming Value Investors/Academics. And for this reason I need to list him in my blog. The way he lay’s out all his information and lessons makes it digestible and simple to newer people like us. His resources for all Value Investors is a must see, and you should watch his Youtube Channel and Videos. 100%
Discounted Cash Flow Model
When evaluating a Company’s (FCF) Free Cash Flow currently and for the next 10 years you need to include a Average Growth Rate and also consider what your “IDEAL” return rate is that you want to include within the DCF Model. For a more easier way of explaining this I need you to watch this video below. It will give you a better understanding of “How to calculate the DCF of a Company”.
Margin of Safety
In conclusion of today’s post it seems like it would be worth it to include what I had touched on earlier, “Margin of Safety”. If you are a Hedge Fund Manager or Value Investor, or everyday Accredited Investor knowing and calculating a Company’s Intrinsic Value is incredibly useful when analysing if it is a Investment you want to make. However even though you do find the Value of a Stock or Company you need to add an extra layer of Safety to the strategy before deciding to invest. The way you do this is by adding a Margin of Safety. Benjamin Graham’s Book will give you more info on this. But if your really a Pro? You will likely want more of a tactical explanation, strategy and guidance. So I highly suggest you read Mr. Seth Klarman’s “Margin of Safety”.
To end this chapter of todays very long post, it’s ideal if I say this in conclusion. Even though you may calculate the Value of a Company or Stock? You must make a educated professional judgement if the company warrants a long term investment. Many everyday investors don’t have the temperament nor experience within Value Investing to make these correct calls. But with time and learning to be Risk Averse by, with and through failures? You will learn. I wish you all happy hunting and I do hope you learned a bunch from today’s post. It’s long over due. And let’s make something clear up front.
This post is just a short taste of what Calculating Intrinsic Value is all about. The topic and subject is so deep and wide this post is nothing compared to the expertise out there in the market. If you are a Beginner or moderate investor? Please find a mentor and study the greats/legends like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Ackman, Mohnish Pabrai, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman and others. Then you will begin to see “How to use this post as a spark of which direction you should go to invest in your education, experience and financial gain.”
Godspeed
JS